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Just two days before the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – going beyond who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous initially: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but there were two big batches of votes added later and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which election day turned out kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year backed Zohran now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think certain, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it so afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I think occurred a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the property owners and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. However overall, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key figures from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.