Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.